Missouri and Arizona are looking like sure wins for John Kerry, and in South Carolina, he's pushing John Edwards hard for first place. In Oklahoma, some polls show Wesley Clark in first with Kerry second, while others show Kerry first and Clark second. Kerry also leads in preference polling in North Dakota, and I expect he'll also win in Delaware, where Joe Lieberman might have been competitive if he had done better in New Hampshire.
Here's what I expect, for now:
Kerry wins Missouri, Arizona, North Dakota, Delaware. I also think he'll win New Mexico, but Howard Dean is supposedly still strong there. If Dean loses in New Mexico, he's done. Oklahoma is too close to call right now.
I think John Edwards will pull South Carolina out. And I think that will be good overall for the Democrats. Edwards needs to look strong in the south. Kerry doesn't need to win South Carolina. A good second place finish is all he needs, and it looks like he'll get that.
Posted by hboswell at January 30, 2004 11:45 AM | TrackBackThe worst thing that could happen now would be for Kerry to sweep all seven states on Tuesday. It's not that I don't think he'll get the nomination, but rather that there needs to *be* a Democratic race through as much of the primary season as possible.
This is for two reasons. First, the voters need to stay interested and engaged in the process. It would be too easy for things to wind down early, and then have GWB flood the airwaves for months and months with millions of dollars worth of ads while the Dems regroup. The second is that the more exposure (and success) Edwards has, especially in the South, the more effective he's going to be as a VP candidate.
Posted by: Dave at January 31, 2004 05:38 PMI agree - the best thing that could happen would be Edwards winning SC, Clark winning Oklahoma by a nose, and Dean winning New Mexico and maybe Michigan next weekend.
I'm just not sure that will happen.
Posted by: Harry at January 31, 2004 07:46 PMI hope Dean doesn't win Michigan. It's a big state, and we want those people coming out for Kerry/whomever in November. One thing I'm worrying about is how many of Dean's strongest supporters won't vote if Dean isn't the party's candidate.
Posted by: Dave at January 31, 2004 09:50 PMFrom what I've heard in Oklahoma, it really is too close to call. Clark has a lot of appeal with conservative Democrats, and there's no such thing as a white liberal in Oklahoma. Kerry's gaining, but only in Oklahoma City. Edwards can pull it out if he can win Tulsa.
As for Washington, no one's even attempted a poll out here. Seattle had been solidly Dean until the scream. The Times endorsed Libermann this morning, further cementing them as a conservative paper in a liberal town. Anyway, if there's a state Dean can win, it's Seattle.
I'm dumping my GOP affiliation to go to the caucus on Saturday and starting with Lieberman. Our precinct has about 100 houses, so it should be interesting who shows up on Saturday morning.
Posted by: dw at February 2, 2004 02:01 AMI think it will be fun to watch the results come in simply because I just don't trust polls. Every poll seems to have some bias to it, either intentionally or unintentionally, and they really only seem to serve to push some poll takers agenda.
The papers can't seem to ever really get the story right when trusting to polls. Basically I think the problem is because their stories are about polls instead of just watching the candidates. The people in those various states are the ones that will make the final decision so why try and push one candidate or another up or down by saying "he can't win according to our polls" or "He is the obvious winner" when time and time again their polls are shown to be worthless?
Posted by: Brian S at February 2, 2004 10:04 AM