The Kudzu Files

Iowa, Howard Dean, Where We Go From Here

I have this little thought bouncing around the fringes of my mind, that the next week isn't going to go the way Howard Dean and most political pundits foresee. I can't really point to anything in particular, and the latest poll I've seen still shows Dean leading Gephardt 25% to 23%, but I just feel a softening in Dean's support. And a large part of his campaign's raison d'etre is his aura of inevitability - or more properly, the aura of inevitability which the press has endowed upon his campaign (and which his campaign enthusiastically accepted). And if he falters even slightly in Iowa, what happens then? Who is best poised to take over, or at least rush into the void, however small it might be? John Kerry has been expected, for a year now, to be among the front-runners. He's never gathered much momentum. John Edwards has suddenly picked up a major endorsement, but that was surprising in and of itself, given his continued weakness in the polls (weakness meaning he's in Al Sharpton-Dennis Kucinich territory). Wesley Clark could have that nomination surge that some expected after he entered the race. And Richard Gephardt is sort of everybody's perennial second choice - but only their first choice ever gets their vote. But I watched an Iowa appearance by Gephardt the other night, and there just didn't seem to be any enthusiasm in the crowd.

So what do I think? I see Gephardt pushing for first place in Iowa, but unless he polls higher than the 23-25% where he's been sitting for months, I don't see any major bounce for him (as a commentator on Meet The Press this morning, people in Iowa have had 16 years to like Gephardt; if they haven't by now, they sure won't in the next couple of days). I'm thinking either Kerry or Edwards will get enough of a push, and at Dean's expense, to change the dynamics of the race. If it's Kerry, then he suddenly goes into New Hampshire as a hot property in perfect position to get white-hot with a win there.